MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/8/22

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numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to identify the bets with the highest probability of a payout – whether you bet on the total, a runline or a moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should aim for on any given night. The stars represent how much you should risk on a bet compared to what you would normally bet. For example, if you normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 bet, if we give a three-star rating, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our template as a guide, let’s take a look at today’s hottest MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that the lines are subject to change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Please check here to ensure you are seeing the most up-to-date information.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Miami Moneyline (+136): 1 out of 5 stars

Our model likes the Miami Marlins’ underdog chances today at the New York Mets better than bettors do.

Pablo Lopez is a big reason why. Lopez is having another great campaign, posting a 3.58 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 13.4% swing strike rate. Swinging strike rate is a career-best rating, so there’s room for positive regression on his good-not-great strikeout rate.

While Lopez has her work cut out against a Mets offense with the 9th-best wOBA of the year (.320), the Mets haven’t been as strong lately, ranking 20th in wOBAs over the past Last 30 days (.308) .

Chris Bassit gets the ball for New York. Overall, Bassitt has maintained or improved on the numbers he posted last year in his 2021 breakout. He has a 3.49 SIERA rating and a 25.7% strikeout rating, although his 10.2% swing hit rate leaves a bit to be desired.

The problem for Bassitt today is that it will be his first start after a stint in IL for COVID. He hasn’t pitched since June 25, and it’s not 100% certain he’ll be. Also, the Marlins’ offense isn’t a complete pushover as they’re registering just around the league average in wOBA (.307).

According to our model, the Mets win this game 54.5% of the time, so we give the Marlins a win odds of 45.5%. At their price of +136, Miami’s implied win odds are just 42.4%. There is some value in backing the Marlins on the moneyline, a bet we rate as a one star bet.

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Over 8.0 (-110): Rating 3 stars out of 5

We missed the over the top in this game last night as Beau Brieske surprisingly baffled the Chicago White Sox. Our algorithm points to the top again in the second game of the series.

Tarik Skubal and Lucas Giolito are the likely pitchers, and both have struggled lately.

Skubal started the year in great shape, but he’s allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts, a streak that includes fairly soft matchups with the Kansas City Royals.Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers. Just looking at Skubal’s last five appearances, he’s scored for 1.96 dingers per nine with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 13.0% walk rate. While his 4.74 xFIP in this span is higher than his 9.00 ERA, Skubal is clearly not throwing well right now.

Giolito is into a similar funk, although he has shown signs of breaking up in his last two starts. Prior to those latter two, Giolito had posted a 16.7% strikeout rate and 5.25 xFIP while allowing 3.00 taters per nine in a miserable four-game streak. Giolito has a great game against the Detroit Tigers, but the Tigers offense has shown a pulse lately, ranking 16th in wOBA over the past 14 days (.317).

We see both offenses doing decently well today, pitching the Pale Hose to win 4.83-4.64. That’s 9.47 points in total, and we expect the plus to win 58.2% of the time. We give it a three-star rating, our highest of the night.

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