NHL Daily Betting Guide: January 15


Having a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.

During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor with this betting model and our betting tools.

Every day we will review every game, the Sports betting odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philippe Boulsink. Based on these two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to watch throughout the day.

You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:

All “recommended bets” are 1 unit bets.

I will also provide best bet analysis and update this post throughout the day to report important news regarding injuries, roster changes and the departure of backup goalkeepers.

The number to watch is the “Diff”. which is the percentage difference between the projected Win% of the model and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To learn how odds convert to percentages, use our Odds calculator.

Proceed with caution ⚠️

If both teams were completely healthy, I might fall behind betting the Blues at +160. However, the Maple Leafs are nearly 100% and the Blues will likely be without Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko and Pavel Buchnevich, all of whom are in COVID-19 protocol. That’s too many key players to confidently agree with the model’s assessment that St. Louis has a 50.6 percent chance of winning tonight’s game.

That said, Tarasenko, Schenn and Parayko are all eligible to be activated and play if they produce the negative tests required to play. If we hear they’re back, consider it a +160 one-unit play.

1 Unit Bet: STL +160 (if Tarasenko, Parayko and Schenn play)

Lines to watch

St. Louis is the only game the model is strongly considering betting on, but it’s very, very close on a few games. Here are the bets to consider if there is a line move.

Team ➡ Current Line ➡ Bet Line

CAR ➡ (-199) ➡ (-193)
NYI ➡ (+121) ➡ (+123)
NYR ➡ (-140) ➡ (-127)
ANA ➡ (+123) ➡ (+128)
LAK ➡ (-128) ➡ (-122)

Game choice

Edmonton Oilers Puck (-1.5) vs Ottawa (+115)

My first of three games today. I support McDavid and the Oilers as they host the Ottawa Senators. Edmonton dominated Ottawa last season, going 9-0-0 and outscoring the Sens 41-18. Edmonton also recalled Stuart Skinner before this game and he has won each of his last two starts at the NHL level. I love that the Oilers are rolling on home ice tonight.

I also take the Avalanche on the Puck Line (-150) in their second straight game against the Coyotes.

Sebastian Aho Over 0.5 assists (-115)

It’s been a tough few days on the props front, but we’ll trust the process and carry on today. I love Sebastian Aho grabbing an apple this afternoon against the Vancouver Canucks. Aho has four assists in his last five games and he faces a Canucks team that has allowed nine goals in the first two games of their current road trip.


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