South Carolina vs Florida Odds, Picks, Predictions


South Carolina vs Florida Odds

South Carolina will travel to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville this weekend to face the Gators.

Both teams have had rocky seasons, but are on a similar level within the division. South Carolina is already eligible to bowl for the second year in a row, while Florida will need to pick up one more win to qualify for a bowl in Billy Napier’s first season.

Last season, South Carolina won at home by a score of 40-17. Florida has generally dominated this series, but over the past decade has had some close battles. I expect this week’s game to play out similarly between two relatively even teams.

Gamecocks offense

This South Carolina offense has been everywhere this season.

You never know if you’ll get the unit capable of pitting 50 against inferior opponents or if you’ll get the team that struggled to break into double digits against Missouri.

South Carolina is ranked 53rd best offense by SP+, and they are 76th in offensive success rate. The addition of Spencer Rattler improved the Gamecocks’ passing game from a season ago but still hasn’t been the response they were hoping for in Colombia.

This passing game ranks 99th in success rate and 75th in PPP. They were, however, able to generate explosive plays, as they rank 17th in terms of passing explosiveness.

South Carolina’s running game is okay, but it’s not anything out of the ordinary. They rank 45th in quick win rate and 39th in PPP. Their main issue in the running game is that the Gamecocks rank 112th in the PFF running block rating at 52.0. MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse in this backfield as he has 100 carries on the season and is averaging 5.88 yards per carry and 0.15 EPA per carry.

Gamecocks Defense

On the surface, this South Carolina defense hasn’t been bad, but it might not be the best game for this Florida Gators team.

The South Carolina defense is ranked 37th by SP+ but only 113th in pass rate. Most of the success on this defense has come against the pass, as they rank 58th in pass rate and 65th in PPA.

Florida’s strength lies in its rushing play. However, South Carolina only ranks 128th in run success rate and 112th in PFF run defense, which may end up causing some problems.

The wildcard here will be how well the Gamecocks are able to withstand the explosiveness of Florida’s offense. The Gators are extremely explosive, especially in the running game. South Carolina’s best defensive attribute this season has been preventing explosive running plays, as they rank fourth in allowed explosiveness.

If South Carolina is able to continue, they may be able to stop Anthony Richardson and the Gators’ dynamic offense.

Alligator offense

A lot has changed for Florida since Anthony Richardson won the Week 1 Heisman by defeating Utah in The Swamp. The Gators have been on a roller coaster since then and find themselves sitting 5-4, one win away from bowl eligibility in Billy Napier’s first season in Gainesville.

Richardson has been as dynamic as you might imagine on the pitch, but has yet to become a productive passer. Florida ranks 90th in pass completion rate, but is capable of hitting a big play once in a while, as it ranks 13th in passing explosiveness.

The rushing game for Florida ranks 77th in hit rate but ninth in PPP, as it is the most explosive rushing game in the nation. Florida ranks as the number one offense in terms of overall explosiveness.

Richardson is absolutely electric on the court. He has 552 yards and eight touchdowns on just 68 carries. On those rushes, Richardson averages an astonishing 0.61 EPA per play, which is more than most of the top quarterbacks in the nation, even on average when throwing the ball.

Trevor Etienne is the other home run threat on this offense. Etienne is averaging 0.17 EPA per carry and 5.94 yards per carry.

Alligator Defense

Florida’s defense hasn’t lived up to typical SEC standards this season. They are ranked 74th by SP+ and 117th in defensive pass rate. They haven’t been good at stopping teams from completing practices (107th) or creating havoc (126th).

The Gators struggled with the pass and the run. They are 114th in race success rate and 113th in race PPP. Against the pass, they are slightly better at 99th in pass rate and 83rd in APP allowed.

South Carolina’s offense isn’t one that typically emphasizes defenses, so this can be a good place for Florida’s defense, but they’re a vulnerable unit and could be exploited with good Gamecocks game plan.

South Carolina vs Florida game analysis

Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical comparison between South Carolina and Florida:

South Carolina Offense vs. Florida Defense

Florida Offense vs. South Carolina Defense

Pace of play / Other
PFF tackle 54 55
PFF cover 105 64
SP+ special teams 1 48
Seconds per game 27.0 (84) 26.9 (79)
Peak rate 52.5% (72) 56.1% (52)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

South Carolina vs Florida betting picks

Florida’s rushing attack poses a huge lag and should have a big day. However, 8.5 points is simply too big a gap between these two teams.

Neither defense is great, and I think South Carolina will be able to stay within a touchdown in this game.

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