UFC Austin Betting Guide

0

The UFC tour isn’t over yet. They’re making a stop in the best-kept city after last week’s wild card in Singapore, and the featherweight main event should be an absolute bang.

UFC Austin: Kattar vs. Emmett will take place Saturday at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. Which MMA bets stand out on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Cody Stamann and Phil Hawes will both win (-168; 2.0 units)

Last week, Manel Kape was forfeited due to weight issues with his opponent. The two-legged player therefore only remains at 10-5 on this canceled bet.

This week we are putting more units on a line with more juice than normal. Hey, I guess everything is bigger in Texas.

This week’s parlay should start with Cody Stamann (-530). Stamann has suffered three straight losses against the ranked bantamweight, but he will have a great chance to bounce back this weekend. He has a date with Eddie Wineland, and Wineland is a knockout of Grigory Popov (0-2 in the UFC and now cut) after a five-fight skid himself against unranked fighters.

At 37, Wineland simply doesn’t produce a modern UFC offensive threat against top-tier opponents. He lands just 3.40 significant strikes per minute with a miserable 29% accuracy, and that comes with just 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes. Stamann (+0.63 hitting success rate) might even be able to do this work on the feet without going through his trademark ground game.

For the other leg, I love the position Phil Hawes (-260) to this weekend. He has a seven inch advantage over fellow middleweight wrestler Deron Winn. Winn is only 5-foot-6, so he’s struggled to hit (-0.43 hitting success rate) in this split. His lone UFC victory came on a 12-knockout over Antonio Arroyo.

The problem? Hawes has a 100% takedown defense, including all six against multi-time UFC winner – and greater human – Kyle Daukaus. It’s hard to see Winn not getting caught at range by Hawes’ deadly 56% hit accuracy.

Those numbers should continue to swell this week, so get that number as low as possible.

Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett go the distance (-112; 1.0 units)

A.

That’s the number of fights a top-10 featherweight has lost over the distance since the start of 2019. We saw it earlier this year in Alexander Volkanovski’s lopsided title defense against Chan Sung Jung .

This split continues to produce brutal business the full distance, and Saturday’s main event should be no different.

Favorite, Calvin Kattar (-245), has the weakest hitting defense at 51%, but the Bostonian has an otherworldly chin. He is the UFC record holder for major strikes absorbed in a fight (445), and he has never been knocked out in a professional or amateur appearance.

Josh Emmett (+186) will give Kattar the gripping match he desires. Emmett is averaging just 1.25 strikeouts every 15 minutes, and he hasn’t landed any results since his major knee surgery. Emmett’s 63% hitting defense is elite, and he’s only been knocked out once in his 16-fight career.

These two sent other weaker attackers into the Shadow Realm but are pretty well matched, so it feels like 25 minutes on the role between two warriors.

Dart throw of the week: Roman Dolidze by KO/TKO (+750; 0.25 units)

Darts isn’t very appealing this week, but I think there’s a tiny bit of value here.

Roman Dolidze (+172) and Kyle Daukaus are both phenomenal grapplers. They both average over 2.40 takedowns and 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. By pitting them against each other, the fight could end up being a gripping match.

In fact, Daukaus is expecting one. This is interesting given that Dolidze’s takedown defense (53%) is one on paper that he can exploit. If this fight remains standing, Daukaus may not like the ending.

He only has a 40% strike defense, but he just wasn’t required to be ranged much. At least 63.3% of each of Daukaus’ fights have been under his or his opponents’ control.

Dolidze is actually a better striker than you would ever guess from watching him. He landed a knockout in his debut, holds a +0.96 hit rate, and has positive ratings in both punch accuracy (48%) and punch defense (64%).

Daukaus could be overwhelmed on the feet, so it’s just a small dart that Dolidze’s power produces an explosive result.

Share.

Comments are closed.